2021-Dec-02: Mea Culpa: Efficacies Don't Average!

A couple days ago, commenting at TheZvi, I blithely averaged efficacies from the early and late cohorts of the molnupiravir trial. Fellow commenter Thomas pointed out that this is not correct! This post is a mea culpa and a lesson to myself on How to Do It Right.

2021-Nov-30: FDA AMDAC Considers Merck's Molnupiravir

Today the FDA’s Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee (AMDAC) meets to decide whether or not to recommend emergency use authorization (EUA) of Merck’s molnupiravir, and antiviral therapy for mild to moderate COVID-19 in adults. Wanna read along?

2021-Nov-27: So, nu? (I mean… So, omicron?)

There’s a new SARS-CoV2 variant. How bad does it look? Nobody really knows, but it’s got the potential to be very, very bad.

2021-Nov-23: COVID-19: Is it 'over'?

With vaccination rates rising (albeit glacially slowly), and new therapeutics like molnupiravir and paxlovid about to be approved, people are asking: is it over? My take is: probably not.

2021-Nov-19: A Couple Ivermectin Takedowns

The right-wing knuckleheadedness around ivermectin as a COVID-19 therapy continues to amaze me. This week I came across 2 ivermectin takedowns: a Malaysian clinical trial and Scott Alexander’s dissection of the ivmmeta.com metanalysis. Two thumbs down. Way down.

2021-Nov-16: COVID-19 Continues to Kill Conservatives

Charles Gaba has updated his county-level COVID-19 vax rates and death rates, versus percentage of Trump voters. It’s not pretty.

2021-Nov-12: On New COVID-19 Therapeutics

Vaccines are great, but now there are some exciting new treatments for COVID-19, in case you get a breakthrough infection (or made the wrong choice about accepting vaccination). Let’s look at how well they work, and what they might cost in comparison to other things.

2021-Nov-09: On kids and vaccines: ending the pandemic

If you think we can end the pandemic without vaccinating kids because they tend not to get so sick… think again. Try harder this time.

2021-Nov-08: Three Lessons from COVID

COVID-19 has taught us some lessons about (a) how mind-numbingly stupid and corrupt we can be, and (b) some forms of corruption that are so confusing that I can’t tell if they are the divine madness or instead just &Gammad;ΤΦ.

2021-Nov-01: When Was the Norse Settlement at L'Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland?

Hey, let’s think about something that’s not COVID-19! Like, for example: when exactly did the Norse settlement at L’Anse aux Meadows in Newfoundland happen?

2021-Oct-30: The Partisan Divide on COVID-19 Deaths

COVID-19 death rates in the US are nakedly partisan. So is mask resistance. So is delusional belief about nonsensical use of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine. Care to draw a conclusion?

2021-Oct-27: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (for the 6th time!)

Today the Weekend Editrix got shot, also for the sixth time this year! It was pretty good.

2021-Oct-26: FDA VRBPAC Considers Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids 5 – 11

Today the FDA’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meets to discuss an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty for children ages 5 – 11. Lots of parents have been awaiting this for the last year and a half, with varying degress of frayed nerves.

Well… are we?

2021-Oct-24: On 'Natural' Immunity Persistence vs COVID-19

What are the consequences of relying on ‘natural’ immunity after recovery from COVID-19? Pretty grim, as it turns out.

2021-Oct-22: Cops vs The Rest of Us: Mask Edition

Two NYPD transit cops forcibly ejected a citizen from a Manhattan subway station. His crime? Pointing out that the cops were not wearing masks, in contravention of a statewide mask mandate, and, for that matter, simple common sense and courtesy.

2021-Oct-20: State of the Blog at 1 Year

This crummy little blog that nobody reads has been around for a little more than a year. It’s time to look at the numbers and see how we’ve been doing.

2021-Oct-18: Vaccine Mandate Origins in the US

The history of why vaccine mandates are in fact constitutional in the United States has a long, somewhat twisted history. It’s also of local interest, here at Chez Weekend, as many of the important events transpired a short MBTA ride away.

2021-Oct-15: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for J&J and Mix/Match Boosters

Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Johnson & Johnson/Janssen application for 2nd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine. They will also at least discuss the 3x3 mix-and-match booster study.

2021-Oct-14: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Moderna Spikevax

Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Moderna application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. Wonderful name aside, there should be a good case to be made as well.

2021-Oct-05: The Man Who Wins New England Autumn

Today I learned of a hero, engaged in a Great Work that is clearly a service to all humanity. Oh, and there were donuts, too.

2021-Oct-04: COVID-19 Miscellany

Do you want the good news first?

2021-Sep-27: Today I got shot (for the 6th time!)

Today I got shot. Again. For the sixth time this year!

2021-Sep-26: Petrov Day #38: Remembering the Day the World Did NOT End

Today the world did not end. That’s 38 times in a row, now.

2021-Sep-25: Work Nightmares: A Fantasy of Fairness

Yes, discontent with the corporate system and rule by managers is a thing. As are the associated nightmares, and the corresponding fantasies of justice.

2021-Sep-18: On the Naming of Vaccines

Today I learned the commercial names of the COVID-19 vaccines. One of them is a real winner!

2021-Sep-17: FDA Considers COVID-19 Boosters for Pfizer Comirnaty

Today the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee meets to review the Pfizer/BioNTech application for 3rd dose boosters of their COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Opinion is divided, so there will be some arguing. I’m makin’ popcorn.

2021-Sep-16: Some days I feel like this dog

Problem-solving skills are important.

2021-Sep-14: Today I got shot (a fifth time)

Today I got shot for the fifth time this year. Again, not guns and not COVID, execrable as they both are. Influenza vaccination this time.

2021-Sep-13: On the ratio of Beta-distributed random variables

[Warning: Post contains full frontal nerdity. Bug reports appreciated!] I finally got a copy of Pham-Gia’s paper on the distribution of the ratio of 2 independent Beta-distributed random variables. While I still have some childhood trauma around hypergeometric functions like ${}_{2}F_{1}()$ and its scarier big brother ${}_{3}F_{2}()$… it’s time to face my fears.

2021-Sep-11: On war memorials

Today marks 2 decades since the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NYC, the Pentagon in DC, and a third target that was spared because airline passengers forced a crash in Shanksville, PA. It also marks, with the recent US withdrawal from Afghanistan, at least a winding down, though possibly not a complete ending, of 20 years of war. It’s time to think about war memorials… sort of.

2021-Sep-09: CFS & MIT PSFC build 20T REBCO magnet

Today Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) and MIT’s Plasma Science Fusion Center (PSFC) announced they have successfully built high-$T_c$ REBCO magnet capable of 20T field strength. What should that mean to you?

2021-Sep-07: The Madness of Vaccine Resistance

Have a quarter of us gone mad? It would seem so…

2021-Sep-06: Rosh Hashanah: A Chance to Start Over on Labor Day

Today is Labor Day in the US. It’s also Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. What can we make of that coincidence, even without being Jewish?

2021-Sep-02: Are we wasting too much COVID-19 vaccine?

Today comes news that we’ve wasted about 15.1 million doses of COVID-19 doses here in the US. Is that a lot, or a little? How does it compare with history? Is the difference, if any, just random or is it real, i.e., statistically significant?

2021-Aug-31: Today I got shot (a fourth time)

Today I got shot for the fourth time this year. No, not the COVID-19 booster (yet). The second dose of Shingrix, for shingles.

2021-Aug-29: ZDoggMD on telling COVID stories to motivate vaccination

I’m a data-driven guy who detests persuasian by emotional anecdotes. But most people are, to my dismay, different in that regard. ZDoggMD does a good job today of persuading them.

2021-Aug-29: Vaccination vs Hospitalization Rates: Simpson's Paradox

Somebody asked me about why the vaccines are high efficacy with rare breakthrough infections, but we can see a high fraction of the hospitalized are vaccinated? Right, very puzzling. Then somebody else asked me what I thought of an article about Simpson’s paradox in the context of COVID. Ding, ding, ding, ding!

2021-Aug-23: Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine fully FDA-approved

Good news: the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is now fully FDA-approved!

2021-Aug-19: Two Predictions

From time to time, we make predictions here. Two of them were: high probability of COVID-19 vaccine boosters by fall 2021, and mRNA vaccines will dramatically change the future of vaccines. Guess what happened this week?

2021-Aug-18: COVID-19 Vaccines and Alzheimers: Analyzing the Myth

Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccines prevented Alzheimers. Wait, what?

2021-Aug-17: COVID-19 Vaccines and Infertility: Analyzing the Myth

Somebody asked me about whether the COVID-19 vaccine could cause infertility. Wait, what?

2021-Aug-04: Vaccine Efficacy, Delta Variant, and the CDC Changes

Last week several bombs were dropped: COVID vaccine efficacy with the Delta variant, breakthrough infections, asymptomatic carriers, and changes in CDC guidelines. Was the panicky media coverage at all useful?

2021-Jul-29: Anger Among the Vaccinated

Somebody asked me why vaccinated people in the US seemed to be always so angry at the unvaccinated. Hmpf.

2021-Jul-19: COVID-19 Vaccination is Better Than Natural Immunity

Periodically I meet people who think “natural” immunity from having had COVID-19 is somehow better than being vaccinated. A new Israeli study plumbs the depths of just how wrong that is.

2021-Jul-17: COVID Vaccines: Why Not Full Approval?

Somebody asked me a couple days ago why the Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines don’t have full FDA approval. Umm… hmm. Good question.

2021-Jul-16: The Highest-Vaccination Ethnic Group in the US

What ethnic group in the US do you think has the highest vaccination rate?

2021-Jul-12: Thoughts on Variants & Vaccines

The variants are starting to pile up. Unless we vaccinate everybody faster, there are going to be variants which evade vaccines and then we start all over. How close are we to that?

2021-Jul-12: Really, Republicans?

[Warning: US-centric, lefty political rant. If you’re from outside the US and want to laugh at us… well, fair enough: we’ve earned it.] I mean… really, Republicans? Do you seriously want to put up with politicians like this? For what possible reason? Why would you even want to be in the same party as people like this?

2021-Jun-30: ZDoggMD on the Delta Variant

Somebody asked me what I thought of ZDogg’s explanation of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant. My first thought was “ZDogg who? Is that a rapper or something?” My final thought was that the guy’s eminently reasonable, eloquent, and kind.

2021-Jun-29: Today I got shot (a third time)

Today I got shot a third time! No, not a COVID-19 booster (though that’s getting pretty interesting, but its time is not yet). Today I got the first of 2 doses of the formerly-scarce Shingrix vaccine against shingles.

2021-Jun-10: US COVID-19: A Tale of Two Countries

As COVID-19 gradually comes under control in the US, we are becoming 2 countries: one that listends to science and medical advice, and another rather more backward. This leads to some startlingly disturbing contrasts in the news.

2021-Jun-07: Stock Diversifiers: Treasury vs Corporate Bonds?

If you invest in US stocks, you certainly want to diversify with some bonds for risk control, availability of funds for rebalancing, and earning some income. Should you use Treasury bonds (which earn approximately nothing, but are safe) or corporate bonds (which earn something, but are riskier)?

2021-May-21: Wastewater Revisited: Metagenomic Viral RNA and Medical Loads

Last November, we looked at metagenomics of sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA vs medical loads in Boston. The results then were inconclusive. There’s a lot more data now. Does the mRNA in sewage actually predict anything useful about COVID hospital admission, ICU admission, ventilator use, and death? Yes, it does.

2021-May-12: More sense about vaccines from Hank Green

Hank Green once again has one or two true and useful words to say to young people about COVID-19 vaccination.

2021-May-10: Dracula and the vaccine

Romania has one of the highest vaccine hesitancy rates in Europe, around 50%. They’re starting to get… creative.

2021-May-06: Good news on vaccines vs variants!

Some good news, for once: the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is now known to work quite well against the British & South African variants in the real world. Especially in preventing hospitalization and death.

2021-May-05: Immunity freedom day for the Weekend Editrix!

As of today, the esteemed Weekend Editrix is 2 weeks past her 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and thus as fully immunized as it’s possible to be right now. At 3pm EDT, she is officially out of COVID jail! Well, more or less…

2021-May-03: Reviewing Google Translate for These Blog Posts

A few weeks ago, we hooked up Google Translate for this blog. It’s time to review how well it’s been working… or not.

2021-Apr-30: CORVID 19

In Latin, “corvus” means crow. So the adjectival form used in biology for birds-such-as-crows is “corvid”. Sometimes people get confused in interesting ways.

2021-Apr-24: The Billionth Dose

As of yesterday, we passed a remarkable milestone: the billionth COVID-19 vaccination dose has been administered.

2021-Apr-23: JnJ Revenant

Today the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) today recommended restoring use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine with warnings, and thrombosis treatment guidelines for clinicians. The CDC & FDA agreed, and lifted the restrictions. This seems to be very much the correct conclusion, albeit one arrived at far too slowly.

2021-Apr-21: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot (again)

Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. Again. (The good way.)

2021-Apr-19: Politics vs mask use & vaccine uptake in the US

Does political alignment in the US inform medically-relevant behaviors like mask use and vaccine uptake? Alas, yes: but not in a good way.

2021-Apr-16: Another study of clotting and COVID vaccines

Another study has come out, comparing clotting risks of COVID-19 and various vaccines versus each other. What are the risks? And can we interpret the study the obvious way, or not?

2021-Apr-13: US pauses JnJ vaccine on thromboses

Today the US regulatory agencies “paused” the use of the JnJ COVID-19 vaccine to investigate thromboses, similar to what’s been seen with the AZ/OX vaccine. How many, how bad, and what will a pause do?

2021-Apr-08: Reading the RNA in the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines

Have you ever wondered if you could make sense of the RNA code in the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, if you could just read it? With some help, you can now do exactly that.

2021-Apr-07: Immunity freedom day!

As of today, your humble Weekend Editor is 2 weeks past the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine. At 5pm, I am officially out of COVID jail! Right? Not quite…

2021-Apr-03: Pfizer/Moderna vaccine mRNA sequences posted on GitHub

Interestingly, some Stanford scientists saved a few drops of the Moderna vaccine, apparently ran them through their sequencers, and posted the sequences on GitHub.

2021-Apr-01: April foolishness

Today is April Fool’s Day. Attrapons le poisson d’avril!

2021-Mar-31: Today the Weekend Editrix got shot

Today the Weekend Editrix got shot. The good way: Pfizer/BioNTech PF-07302048/BNT162b2.

2021-Mar-30: Variants vs Vaccines

SARS-CoV-2 is mutating, in increasingly dangerous ways. Can we keep up with booster vaccines for the variants, or even eliminate it once and for all?

2021-Mar-30: Proposed Darwin Award for vaccine policy

Sometimes politicians pursue policies so breathtakingly out of touch with reality, you just don’t know what to say. (Understandably, because “breathtaking”.)

2021-Mar-24: Today I got shot (again)

Today I got shot (again). In the good sense: the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine.

2021-Mar-23: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial (and its further discontents!)

Somebody asked me about the AstraZeneca press release on their new Phase 3 vaccine trial. AstraZeneca has done it again… just not in a good way.

2021-Mar-22: The pandemic year in retrospect

Time for perspective: we’ve been stuck in a pandemic for a year now. What’s the best summary of your experience?

2021-Mar-17: The AstraZeneca/Oxford Vaccine vs Blood Clots

Somebody asked me whether worries the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine and dangerous blood clotting seen in some patients were a real problem. You know what the anti-vaxxers are gonna say; what do the data say?

2021-Mar-15: US Senate: does one party filibuster more?

Sen McConnell claims the Democrats abuse the filibuster! (Because of course he does.) But what do the data say?

2021-Mar-14: Pi Day: Are you still using decimal notation?!

Today is Pi Day (3/14). You’re not still using decimal, are you?

2021-Mar-10: Republicans vs Herd Immunity

If a large enough clade of US persons refuse COVID-19 vaccination, herd immunity may never be reached. Right now in the US, that clade seems to be White Republicans. (World-wide, it’s of course more complicated.)

2021-Mar-08: I guess I like Dolly Parton?!

There is an apparently famous American country music singer named Dolly Parton. I was never a fan because… country music, ugh! But it appears I need to be a fan of the woman herself, because of her philanthropy and her encouragment of vaccination. Hmm… I had no idea.

2021-Mar-03: Today I got shot

Today I got shot. No, not the bad way (though gun control is a legitimate issue in the US). I mean, with the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Getting the appointment (and the 2nd dose) was Kafkaesque. The actual medical experience was pretty ok.

2021-Feb-26: Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 review by FDA external advisory committee

Today the J&J COVID-19 vaccine gets reviewed by VRBPAC (Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee) at the FDA, for an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). Let’s have a look through their submission documents!

2021-Feb-24: Why did Republicans block a Trump impeachment guilty verdict?

It’s been a couple weeks, so we’ve all calmed down a little. But still… why did 43 Republican senators vote to block the obvious guilty verdict in Trump’s impeachment?

2021-Feb-11: Impeachment actions: sine qua non

So. US politics: it seems The Creature is being impeached. Again. What can we do to make sure the impeachment makes a difference this time?

2021-Feb-01: COVID-19 vaccines: the need for speed

Vaccine rollouts worldwide, with very few exceptions, have been slow & bungled. But we face a cruel equation: delay = death. Why do we tolerate this?

2021-Jan-29: JnJ COVID-19 vaccine interim readout: 57% - 72% efficacy, depending on… SOMETHING

Today Johnson & Johnson/Janssen announced the interim readout (not final numbers!) of their adenovirus-vector based COVID-19 vaccine: 72% efficacy in the US, down to 57% efficacy in South Africa. We previously described the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna/Lonza vaccines as “beautiful”; this is “relatively pretty”. Pretty enough to do some good in the world, though.

2021-Jan-25: Today this blog got its first spam

Honestly, what sort of idiot tries to sell fake Viagra on an obscure, crummy little blog like this? And on an old post at that?! (Please don’t answer those rhetorical questions, especially if you actually know the answers.)

2021-Jan-20: The adults are finally back in charge!

Today was a good day: with the inauguration (and the constitutional mandate behind it) at 12:01pm, Biden & Harris and a (barely) Democratic Congress are back in charge in the US.

2021-Jan-16: Is 'natural' immunity any better than vaccine immunity to COVID-19?

Periodically, anti-vaxxers will say they prefer the ‘natural’ immunity acquired by recovering from a disease, because vaccines are ‘artificial’. Is that likely to be true for COVID-19? In a word: NO.

2021-Jan-14: COVID-19 loves Republican politicians

Suppose you had 2 groups of politicians, but one of them thought a pandemic was “fake news”, refused to wear masks, congregated indoors with no social distancing, blocked public health spending, mocked public health guidance, was proud of their ignorance, and were just in general jerks about the subject. Do you think they’d get infected with the disease more often than their opponents?

2021-Jan-12: Apropos of nothing in particular, what exactly is 'sedition'?

I was wondering what exactly it takes to commit ‘sedition’. Turns out, it’s kind of complicated. What with insurrection, threats to murder Representatives, Senators, and the Vice President last week, apparently everything is complicated.

2021-Jan-06: Democrats take Senate & Presidency; Republicans start insurrection & terrorism

Today was when the Electoral College was to have been certified in Congress, sealing the fate of the presidential election. It is also the day the Democrats attained a majority in the Senate. Alas, it is also the day Republicans incited insurrectionists and terrorists against the United States government.

2021-Jan-03: Formal scientific publication of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine Phase 3 trial

On 2020-Dec-30, the formal scientific publication of the Moderna’s COVID-19 Phase 3 trail in the prestigious New Englad Journal of Medicine dropped into public view. It’s good.

2020-Dec-31: The mutant coronavirus: will the vaccines still work?

Somebody asked me whether the COVID-19 vaccines currently being used would work vs the mutant form of SARS-CoV-2 now driving COVID-19 in the UK. Looks like it probably will, though nobody really knows. What will definitely work: masking, social distancing, working from home, no gatherings beyond a single household, having adequate food & medicine stored, getting a flu vaccination, and not being a super-spreader of misinformation.

Explaining to COVID vaccine clinical trial participants that the probability of a certain serious adverse event is 1/50,000 or less doesn’t work. Most people instantly stop listening at the slightest whiff of mathematics, including ordinary numbers. But if you compare it to being struck by lightning, that makes sense to most people. Can you guess what happened next?

2020-Dec-29: Santa and the cops

Here at Chez Weekend, there’s a rumor circulating that on Christmas Eve, Santa got pulled over by the cops?!

2020-Dec-28: You're scaring me

You all are scaring me, with your science denying, mask refusing, socially close quarters, holiday travelling ways. C’mon: wear a mask, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, get a flu shot. At least pretend to try you want to live until the vaccine is available, ok? Then maybe you won’t randomly kill the rest of us, who do want to live.

2020-Dec-21: Winter solstice, Dodds's Day, and the Weekend Editrix's Day

Today is the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. It is not, however, the day of earliest sunset (of interest to night owls). Nor is it the day of latest sunrise (of interest to morning… people). Therein lies the tale of the analemma, first told to me long ago by a marvelous former colleague, Doug Dodds.

2020-Dec-18: Moderna vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!

Yesterday was also a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at 5:20pm EST on 2020-Dec-17. Late today, the FDA agreed and granted the Emergency Use Authorization.

2020-Dec-18: XKCD explains it all

Randall Munroe, the mad cartoonist behind XKCD, explains COVID-19 vaccine approvals. And channels Lord Rutherford. Simultaneously.

2020-Dec-15: Another beautiful vaccine: a look into the Moderna FDA EUA submission package

Somebody asked me about the contents of the Moderna EUA application for their COVID-19 vaccine. Summary: It is also quite beautiful.

2020-Dec-14: My cat is a fin-de-siècle French night club cat?!

Apparently the Weekend Publisher, occasionally also known as “my cat”, is the reincarnation of the spirit animal of a fin-de-siècle cabaret in Paris.

2020-Dec-12: Are the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy confidence intervals sensible?

Somebody asked me about the confidence intervals Pfizer reported for vaccine efficacy in various age groups. Some of them are negative! Are they sensible?

2020-Dec-10: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine passes FDA external advisory committee!

Today is a good day: the FDA’s external advisory committee passed the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at 6:30pm EST.

2020-Dec-08: A beautiful vaccine: a look into the Pfizer/BioNTech FDA EUA submission package

Ok, nobody asked me this time, because for once I got out ahead of them. It seems Pfizer/BioNTech submitted an EUA (“emergency use authorization”) package to the FDA. What’s it look like?

2020-Dec-02: Proposed source of the "Wow!" signal?

The sad news about Arecibo brings up the topic of SETI. In better news, an amateur astronomer has proposed a particular star as the source of the famous “Wow!” event, using the Gaia Archive. Wait, what?

2020-Nov-30: What size were the factions in the US election?

So we just had an election. You may have heard there were some rather sharply drawn sides. How big were each of the factions?

2020-Nov-29: We need the Talmudic argument style… someday

Somebody asked me about the style of argument used when discussing the Talmud, a centuries-long rabbinical dialog on Jewish Law. The style involves not so much winning (though there is that), but mostly about understanding multiple points of view. Sound like something the world could use about now?

2020-Nov-27: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine interim readout (and its discontents)

Somebody asked me about the early readout this week of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine Phase 3 trial. Initially they said 70% efficacy. It’s not a stunningly good 95% result like Pfizer or Moderna; still, it’s a good, craftsmanlike bit of work. But then… things got weird.

2020-Nov-24: Some sense about vaccines from Hank Green

Hank Green (notable web producer, author, and master of miscellany) recorded his weekly vlog to his brother about whether he would take a COVID vaccine. Roughly: “oh hell yeah!” (though far more entertainingly).

2020-Nov-19: Well, that was somewhat… unsatisfying

Today the AP finally called Georgia for Biden, after the hand recount. But the Senate still hangs fire until the runoff in January. And apparently, 73 million Americans somehow voted for Trump?!

2020-Nov-18: On COVID vaccine protection persistence

Everybody’s worried about how long the protection from a COVID vaccine will last, whether there can be reinfections, and so on. How much do we actually know about that as of now?

2020-Nov-16: Moderna/Lonza vaccine interim readout: 95% efficacy!

Today the Moderna/Lonza vaccine trial vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 95% efficacy! Also, 100% prevention of severe cases of COVID-19. Like last week’s Pfizer/BioNTech interim readout, this is again unabashedly good news.

2020-Nov-09: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine interim readout: 90% efficacy!

Today the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trial gave its first interim readout: 90% efficacy. This is unabashedly good news.

2020-Nov-04: Wastewater coronavirus RNA vs medical loads

Previously, we mentioned there were data showing the level of coronavirus RNA in metro Boston wastewater, and speculated that it might be predictive of medical loads like hospitalization and death rates. The truth turns out to be weirder than that (comme d’habitude).

2020-Nov-02: Coronavirus & Elections: The Winter of Our Discontent

The election is coming, with a possibility of right-wing violence and subversion. COVID-19 is forming up for another wave of infections. Winter is coming. It’s terrifying, but there are some things you can do.

2020-Oct-24: At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to...

At autumn in New England, thoughts turn to the extreme beauty of nature, the weather turning more comfortably cooler & drier, cinnamon and nutmeg smells everywhere, and… trebuchets, catapaults, air cannons, and other implements of imparting to pumpkins various levels of sub-orbital trajectories.

2020-Oct-15: Statins & ACE inhibitors & ARB blockers as COVID-19 therapeutics?

Somebody asked me (honest!) about a news item linking improved treatment outcomes for COVID-19 with patients using statin and ACE inhibitor drugs. Very preliminary stuff, and the effect size is not giant, but it is peer-reviewed and looks quite legit. Not gonna change the world, but even small bits of good news are welcome.

2020-Oct-06: Today I voted

Today I voted. You should too, if you’re an eligible US voter.

2020-Oct-02: Election Night of the Living Beta Binomials

As you may have heard, the US is about to face an election more contentious than any since the Civil War. With vote counting likely drawn out due to right-wing mischief at, for example, the Post Office, what are we to make of partial returns as far as predicting the outcome? And will there be zombies?

2020-Sep-26: Petrov Day — The Day the World Didn't End

Today we commemorate 1983-Sep-26: the day Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov prevented the end the world. Go thou forth and do likewise: save as much of the world as you can.

2020-Sep-23: COVID points of hope and evaluating a vaccine

Looking for a glimmer of hope amid the COVID clouds? Worried about whether a vaccine will be appropriately safe & effective? You’ve come to the right place.

2020-Sep-02: What's in the Moderna Q2 earnings call?

Somebody asked me (different “somebody” this time, though the same subject) about the Moderna Q2 earnings call. Do I look like I know the answer to questions like that?! On close inspection, though, it looks like a python swallowing a pig: a smallish company tackling a big problem with COVID vaccines.

2020-Aug-07: What's that stupid avatar?

Somebody asked me, “What’s that stupid avatar on your blog?” It’s a reminder that even simple questions show infinite complexity if you look closely enough. And sometimes even if you don’t!

2020-Aug-01: What's happening in the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine phase 3 start?

Somebody asked me (really it’s the same “somebody” behind all of these) about the Moderna COVID vaccine phase 3 start. Basically, it looks like the start of a reasonably designed Phase 3 trial: the beginning of a long slog to test safety & efficacy.

2020-Jul-20: Math test post

Just seeing if I can make the math typesetting work. Nothing to see here, kid… move along.

2020-Jul-18: Lord Kelvin on quantitative knowledge

Qualitative knowledge is real, but… quantitative knowledge is almost always better.

2020-Jul-15: What's in the Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine?

Ok, so I finally tracked down the official Phase 1/2 readout of the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine (whose Phase 3 delay we commented on about 10 days ago). Here are some quick thoughts, but the top line seems to be very good.

2020-Jul-05: And what about the Moderna/Lonza COVID vaccine Phase 3 delay?

Somebody asked me — same troublemakers, in case you’re curious — about whether the Moderna/Lonza Phase 1/2 vaccine trial looked reasonable and if the delay of Phase 3 start for a protocol amendment was reasonable. Sure seems so! No, it’s not an investment signal.