Mon 2023-Aug-07

Ukraine Invasion: 250k Russian Dead

Tagged: MathInTheNews / Politics / Sadness

Sometimes the news is so inevitable and sad that all we can do is bear witness and mourn.

Russian Deaths in the Invasion of Ukraine

It seems, unintentionally, we’ve been writing quite a bit about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, here on this Crummy Little Blog That Nobody Reads (CLBTNR). These have been over a bit of a wide range in tone:

Ukrainian MoD @ Twitter: 250k Russian dead as of 2023-Aug-07

  • Dress standards for Zelensky among the diplomatic suits [1], and a peculiar memory of Tacitus to interpret Ukraine. [2]
  • Some advice to disengage from doomscrolling by a psychotherapist [3], and some refreshingly sensitive and good-spirited advice to “do better”, from Arnold Schwarzenegger. [4] [5]
  • We’ve also looked at the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine’s Twitter/X feed on casualties, and found it generally reasonable (i.e., in the middle of the pack of estimates by other sources). Regression analysis shows a peculiarly linear trend in casualties, and a time structure in Russian missiles that may have to do with their supply chains. [6] [7] [8] [9] [10]

Today’s data snapshot from the Ukr MoD [11] is shown here: a quarter of a million of Russian lives lost.

You can debate the accuracy of the Ukrainian data, but as we’ve investigated before, they are neither the highest nor the lowest estimates, and seem to be done by hand counting at each battle. I have no idea how close to the unknowable reality they are, but they’re about the best a reasonable person on-site can do.

We also note that the rates have stepped up: 500 more Russian dead every day, as well as high numbers of drones and cruise missiles. From the former we learn that Russian field commanders have not gone beyond human wave tactics; from the latter we learn that their higher-ups have decided to try remote warfare.

Still: 250,000 dead in just about a year and a half.

The mind boggles at the brutality of Russia: not only in things like bombing blood transfusion centers, schools, and cathedrals, but also the brutality with which they treat their own soldiers.

The Weekend Conclusion

Honestly, I dunno what to tell ya.

This is madness, but it is the opposite of the Divine Madness.

Even in a world of realpolitik, it doesn’t make sense in terms of the sheer cruelty and stupidity Russia is exhibiting.

Very, very некультурный!

Notes & References

1: Weekend Editor, “On Dress Standards”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-May-10.

2: Weekend Editor, “Tacitus in Ukraine”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-May-25.

3: Weekend Editor, “Ukraine & Russia: A Lack of Thoughts”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2022-Mar-01.

4: Weekend Editor, “Some Unexpected Inspiration on Russia & Ukraine”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2022-Mar-19.

5: Weekend Editor, “Schwarzenegger Reminds Us (Again) To Do Better”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-Mar-16.

6: Weekend Editor, “Another Grim Anniversary”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-Mar-02.

7: Weekend Editor, “Do the Ukrainian Reports of Russian Casualties Make Sense?”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-Apr-15.

8: Weekend Editor, “Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-May-01.

9: Weekend Editor, “Updated Update: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-May-09.

10: Weekend Editor, “Updated${}^3$: Ukrainian Estimates of Russian Casualties Hit 200k”, Some Weekend Reading blog, 2023-May-17.

11: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU), “Total Combat Losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to August 7, 2023”, Twitter/X, 2023-Aug-07.

Published Mon 2023-Aug-07

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