* Republicans & Shutdowns on Thu Apr 04 12:51:41 2024
- input data directory: .
- results directory: .
- transcript to: ./2024-03-21-springtime-for-shutdown.txt
Building dataframe of data:
---------------------------
* Found: 6 rows x 5 columns (Date, House, Senate, Presidency, Days)
Date House Senate Presidency Days
1 1995-Nov R R D 5
2 1995-Dec R R D 21
3 2013-Sep R D D 16
4 2018-Jan R R R 2
5 2018-Dec R R R 34
6 2024-Mar R D D NA
* Saved to ./2024-03-21-springtime-for-shutdown-data.tsv.
Assessing statistical significance:
-----------------------------------
* Using test of proportion:
- Yates correction: FALSE
- Alternative: probability of Republicans in shutdown > 0.5
Branch NShutdowns NRepublican p FDR
1 House 6 6 0.007 0.021
2 Senate 6 4 0.207 0.310
3 Presidency 6 2 0.793 0.793
Assessing strength of effect:
-----------------------------
* Computing Cohen's h for strength of effect
- Range of h is -pi to +pi
- anything with absolute value over 0.8 is a large effect.
Branch NShutdowns NRepublican p FDR AbsCohenh
1 House 6 6 0.007 0.021 1.571
2 Senate 6 4 0.207 0.310 0.340
3 Presidency 6 2 0.793 0.793 0.340
Bayesian Posterior Beta Distributions:
--------------------------------------
* Doing Baysian posterior Beta distribution analysis.* Bayesian Beta posterior plot to ./2024-03-21-springtime-for-shutdown.png.
Branch NShutdowns NRepublican p FDR AbsCohenh MedianPr
1 House 6 6 0.007 0.021 1.571 0.906
2 Senate 6 4 0.207 0.310 0.340 0.636
3 Presidency 6 2 0.793 0.793 0.340 0.364
* Saved to ./2024-03-21-springtime-for-shutdown-results.tsv.
Coda: Posterior Beta Distributions for Probability of Shutdown:
---------------------------------------------------------------
* Bayesian Beta postieror of p shutdowns to ./2024-03-21-springtime-for-shutdown-2.png.
- Republican quantiles:
0.025 0.5 0.975
0.2766697 0.5404928 0.7890554
- Democratic quantiles:
0.025 0.5 0.975
0.003610297 0.094276336 0.409616397
* Republicans & Shutdowns completed Thu Apr 04 12:51:41 2024 (0.1 sec elapsed).