* Republican impeachment vote analysis on Thu Feb 25 13:03:14 2021
- input data directory: .
- results directory: .
- transcript to: ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-transcript.txt
Data loading and marshalling into omnibus form:
-----------------------------------------------
* Loading datasets:
- Backbone dataframe of verdict votes from ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-verdict.tsv
- Constitutionality votes from ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-const.tsv
- State popular vote percentages from ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-states.tsv
- Reelection/retirement data from ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-reelection.tsv
* Using outer joins to make omnibus dataset
- Saved to ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-omnibus.tsv
Exploratory statistics:
-----------------------
* Crosstabulations to generate hypotheses:
Party
VoteConst D I R
Yea 48 2 6
Nay 0 0 44
Party
VoteVerdict D I R
Guilty 48 2 7
NotGuilty 0 0 43
VoteConst
VoteVerdict Yea Nay
Guilty 56 1
NotGuilty 0 43
Senator State Party VoteVerdict VoteConst TrumpMargin NextElection
11 Burr North Carolina R Guilty Nay 1.34 2022
Retiring
11 Yes
NextElection
VoteVerdict 2022 2024 2026
Guilty 17 24 16
NotGuilty 17 9 17
Retiring
VoteVerdict Yes Maybe No
Guilty 2 0 55
NotGuilty 1 4 38
Party
NextElection D I R
2022 14 0 20
2024 21 2 10
2026 13 0 20
* Making boolean/numeric dataframe for regression
* Correlation bicluster of predictors to ./2021-02-24-republican-impeachment-votes-correlations.png
* Measuring feature predictivity by univariate logistic regresssions
Predictor p pRepublican FDR FDRRepublican
1 PartyRepublican 9.928782e-01 NA 9.948269e-01 NA
2 VotedUnconst 9.948269e-01 0.99576058 9.948269e-01 0.9957606
3 TrumpMargin 2.218940e-07 0.02840869 1.109470e-06 0.1136348
4 Running2022 3.114172e-01 0.86791672 5.190287e-01 0.9957606
5 NotRetiring 1.361015e-01 0.24799329 3.402538e-01 0.4959866
Supervised classifier to predict VoteVerdict:
---------------------------------------------
6 x 1 sparse Matrix of class "dgCMatrix"
1
(Intercept) -6.65610938
PartyRepublican .
VotedUnconst 8.21255164
TrumpMargin 0.03186794
Running2022 .
NotRetiring 1.96220073
6 x 1 sparse Matrix of class "dgCMatrix"
1
(Intercept) -2.833573
PartyRepublican .
VotedUnconst 5.106261
TrumpMargin .
Running2022 .
NotRetiring .
True
Predicted FALSE TRUE Total
FALSE 56 0 56
TRUE 1 43 44
Total 57 43 100
Percent Correct: 0.99
$deviance
s0 s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
1.3534121 1.2030059 1.0663617 0.9503458 0.8508542 0.7648556 0.6900453 0.6246287
s8 s9 s10 s11 s12 s13 s14 s15
0.5671816 0.5165546 0.4718077 0.4321622 0.3969672 0.3656731 0.3378123 0.3129844
s16 s17 s18 s19 s20 s21 s22 s23
0.2908441 0.2710924 0.2534686 0.2377449 0.2237211 0.2112210 0.2003135 0.1908488
s24 s25 s26 s27 s28 s29 s30 s31
0.1824821 0.1750778 0.1685420 0.1626793 0.1571864 0.1522571 0.1478789 0.1437159
s32 s33 s34 s35 s36 s37 s38 s39
0.1396032 0.1359505 0.1327708 0.1300286 0.1276874 0.1257147 0.1240831 0.1227621
s40 s41 s42 s43 s44 s45 s46 s47
0.1217281 0.1209520 0.1204138 0.1200941 0.1199747 0.1200422 0.1202764 0.1206657
s48 s49 s50 s51 s52 s53 s54 s55
0.1212009 0.1218660 0.1226527 0.1235610 0.1245652 0.1256772 0.1268722 0.1281489
s56 s57 s58 s59 s60 s61 s62 s63
0.1295064 0.1309355 0.1324342 0.1340017 0.1356260 0.1373094 0.1390468 0.1408418
s64 s65 s66 s67 s68 s69 s70 s71
0.1426794 0.1445614 0.1464844 0.1484438 0.1504340 0.1524505 0.1544678 0.1560939
s72 s73 s74 s75 s76 s77 s78 s79
0.1563241 0.1565505 0.1567981 0.1569681 0.1571404 0.1572820 0.1574306 0.1574729
s80 s81 s82 s83 s84 s85 s86 s87
0.1575153 0.1575101 0.1574736 0.1574370 0.1573357 0.1571417 0.1570030 0.1568115
s88 s89 s90 s91 s92 s93 s94 s95
0.1565857 0.1563335 0.1560592 0.1557843 0.1554913 0.1551823 0.1548786 0.1545646
s96 s97 s98 s99
0.1542583 0.1539613 0.1536579 0.1533649
attr(,"measure")
[1] "Binomial Deviance"
$class
s0 s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7 s8 s9 s10 s11 s12 s13 s14 s15
0.43 0.43 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s16 s17 s18 s19 s20 s21 s22 s23 s24 s25 s26 s27 s28 s29 s30 s31
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s32 s33 s34 s35 s36 s37 s38 s39 s40 s41 s42 s43 s44 s45 s46 s47
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s48 s49 s50 s51 s52 s53 s54 s55 s56 s57 s58 s59 s60 s61 s62 s63
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s64 s65 s66 s67 s68 s69 s70 s71 s72 s73 s74 s75 s76 s77 s78 s79
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s80 s81 s82 s83 s84 s85 s86 s87 s88 s89 s90 s91 s92 s93 s94 s95
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
s96 s97 s98 s99
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
attr(,"measure")
[1] "Misclassification Error"
$auc
[1] 0.7727458 0.9861281 0.9828641 0.9857201 0.9844961 0.9828641 0.9836801
[8] 0.9885761 0.9853121 0.9849041 0.9873521 0.9873521 0.9828641 0.9828641
[15] 0.9849041 0.9832721 0.9877601 0.9869441 0.9869441 0.9865361 0.9824561
[22] 0.9865361 0.9832721 0.9832721 0.9877601 0.9844961 0.9853121 0.9849041
[29] 0.9885761 0.9885761 0.9881681 0.9836801 0.9840881 0.9889841 0.9844961
[36] 0.9836801 0.9828641 0.9869441 0.9885761 0.9889841 0.9832721 0.9840881
[43] 0.9869441 0.9836801 0.9881681 0.9853121 0.9844961 0.9898001 0.9914321
[50] 0.9889841 0.9898001 0.9873521 0.9869441 0.9885761 0.9922481 0.9873521
[57] 0.9918401 0.9934721 0.9934721 0.9898001 0.9873521 0.9898001 0.9930641
[64] 0.9918401 0.9906161 0.9902081 0.9942880 0.9910241 0.9938800 0.9889841
[71] 0.9955120 0.9930641 0.9934721 0.9967360 0.9922481 0.9971440 0.9979600
[78] 0.9926561 0.9926561 0.9922481 0.9979600 0.9971440 0.9938800 0.9967360
[85] 0.9987760 0.9938800 0.9975520 0.9938800 0.9979600 0.9930641 0.9971440
[92] 0.9942880 0.9963280 0.9942880 0.9987760 0.9963280 0.9955120 0.9979600
[99] 0.9983680 0.9963280
attr(,"measure")
[1] "AUC"
* Republican impeachment vote analysis completed Thu Feb 25 13:03:15 2021 (1.6 sec elapsed).